No doubt just about every Dayton Flyers fan has heard the big news for Monday, March 28: head coach Brian Gregory is taking his talents to Georgia Tech.

And based on the incensed comments that have been floating around campus about Gregory’s performance this season, I’m guessing people are mostly very happy about that news.

I can’t say I think Gregory has done a great job in his tenure at UD. It seems like most of his teams have not lived up to their potential. Given some of the talented players who have been a part of the program since Gregory got here eight years ago, it’s fair to say most of the Flyer Faithful would have expected UD to be an annual participant in the NCAA Tournament. That has not been the case, especially in the past two years, when the Flyers have delivered disappointing Atlantic 10 seasons.

So maybe it is a good thing that Gregory is leaving Dayton. His relationship with the fans seems like it was coming to a close, his teams weren’t performing up to snuff, and prized recruit Chris Wright had just concluded his career at UD.

But despite the fact that UD fans are getting what they want, take it with a grain of salt. Next year will be interesting, to say the least.

With the departures of freshman guards Juwan Staten and Brandon Spearman, the Dayton roster was already looking lean. Now Gregory taking off puts the situation in even more doubt.

It is typical when a coach leaves a team for that program to allow its incoming recruits the option of deciding on a different school. It is the fair thing to do, since a player commits to both a program and a coach. It is well-known that Gregory is a good recruiter. Wright and Staten are the best high school recruits to come to UD perhaps ever, and Gregory got them both. The question now becomes whether or not next year’s prized recruits will decided to stick with UD. Did they choose UD because they were wowed by the atmosphere and postseason potential, or was it more about that they felt like they would get along well with the coaching staff and other players?

If LaDontae Henton and Percy Gibson, two very promising forwards, though they would do something special at UD while playing under Gregory while spending three great years alongside Staten and Spearman, maybe they will choose to pull out of their commitments here.

Starting to get the picture? There is a whooooollle lot of change that has happened here in a very short time span, and that is creating a whooooolllle lot of uncertainty for the future.

Dayton Daily News columnist Tom Archdeacon wrote a column after the guards transferred saying UD would be better off next season because they would have better chemistry. Still sure about that one, Arch? It’s tough to imagine any scenario now where Dayton will be better off next year. Even if the athletic administration makes an excellent hire and gets a great coach, he will be coming into a tough situation. Every basketball player on an already thin roster will have to learn a new system. The team’s likely starting point guard, Kevin Dillard, is a transfer player who has never played any minutes with the rest of the returning players. If Dayton’s new coach decides to replace Staten and Spearman, it will likely be with some junior college transfers, adding more unfamiliar faces to the mix. The adjustments are going to be numerous and huge.

Maybe Gregory, Staten and Spearman’s departures will turn out to be a good thing. But I wouldn’t expect that to take place next year. Or maybe the following year even. It will be a tough job. Here’s to hoping Vice President and Director of Athletics Tim Wabler and crew do a good job finding Dayton’s new man. And here’s to hoping the guy doesn’t catch too much flack his first year. He’s going to have enough on his plate already.

Boys vs. Girls

March 28th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

One of the best moments from the men’s basketball season this year was when the Flyers were still playing well, in their final non-conference game of the year. It was a home game against New Mexico, a tough non-conference foe that was giving UD all it could handle. The game was going back and forth in the second half, and the crowd was making it a great atmosphere.

Then freshman guard Juwan Staten caught the ball and drove the baseline, avoiding a New Mexico big man as he jumped for the rim and threw down an emphatic jam. UD Arena exploded. Staten ran back down the court flexing his muscles.

It was a play that will not be forgotten soon, because it was Staten’s first dunk of the year, it was a great play, and it came at an important time in an important game.

The best moments from the women’s basketball team this season? Not really sure. And that’s not a slight at the women’s basketball team. They have had another strong season, going 19-10 overall and 9-5 in the Atlantic 10. Compare that to the men’s basketball regular season performance (19-12, 7-9 A-10). There is no bias here. The point is there is no moment that a fan can point to in this women’s season as something memorable or awesome, so far. Not one. But for the men’s team, there are tons of them.

That is the major difference between watching men’s and women’s sports. In men’s sports, you see the power, the athleticism, what will happen is always the question. In women’s sports, much more of what should happen is on display. The women play fundamentally sound, usually don’t run-and-gun and play more conventional, work-the-ball-around offenses. It’s not just in basketball. While perhaps most pronounced on the basketball court, where dunks are the coolest play, and very rare in the women’s game, the power vs. principals comparison can be made in other sports as well. Take soccer for example. Men love to blast the ball from 35 yards out even though they put those shots on goal about five percent of the time. When those go in, though, it is spectacular. The women’s game doesn’t have as much of this type of play. It is still excellent soccer, probably played more soundly. But it isn’t as entertaining.

Watching a women’s basketball game can be enjoyable, but usually only for people who really understand the game being played. Roommates and friends who don’t follow basketball on their own can still enjoy attending a UD men’s basketball game because there is the chance they will see a great alley-oop, or even a player jumping over the scorer’s table and into fans trying to save a ball. If that’s why you’re attending a game, then the women’s games won’t be for you. They hustle just as much, play just as hard, and in UD’s case, shoot a bit better (men’s basketball team shoots 40.3 percent from the field this season and 34.4 percent from three-point land, while the women shoot 41.3 and 36.5 percent, respectively).

Being at a women’s sporting event is absolutely worthwhile if you can appreciate what they are doing. It’s just that men’s sports have more entertainment value for the general public. That can be a great thing, when an entire arena or stadium is going bonkers cheering their team on. It can turn into a double-edged sword however, when the fans don’t like a call that was made by an official, and turn their energy turns ignorant and negative, booing players or refs. At most women’s games I’ve been to, that has never been the case.

Redemption: Flyers make up for past pain with win

March 11th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

It started off great, like so many of Dayton’s games do.

Then, it looked all too familiar, as Xavier stormed back, putting the pressure on the Flyers.

It look the worst kind of familiar, when Dayton committed an inexcusable 5 second penalty on an inbounds pass, and then Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Tu Holloway converted a basket plus the foul to give X it’s first lead of the game.

Something was different, though, when Luke Fabrizius grabbed an offensive rebound off Chris Johnson’s missed shot, then was fouled, hit his head hard on the court, but calmly stepped to the line and sunk two game-winning free throws. Holloway missed a last-ditch running three, and the horn sounded. Dayton 68, Xavier 67.

It almost didn’t look correct. Since when does Dayton win the close ones over the Musketeers? Not for 30 years away from UD Arena.

But mark it down, UD fans: March 11, 2011. A-10 Tournament quarterfinals. Ninth-seeded Dayton taking down top-seeded Xavier in Atlantic City.

In the grand scheme of things, the win might mean nothing for the Flyers. If they don’t win their next two games, they still won’t make the NCAA Tournament, and maybe not even the NIT. But don’t let that little detail take away from it. This win is perhaps the most meaningful the Flyers have had since Chris Wright has been here.

Yep, better than the 30-point obliteration of Pittsburgh at UD Arena, better than the 25-point win over Xavier at home in 2010, and better than the NCAA Tournament win over West Virginia in 2009.

Because in none of those wins was Terrell Holloway sulking his way off the court after missing a potential game-winner and in none of those wins did Kettering Labs classes get started a bit late because students and faculty were paying more attention to the game.

Finally, UD got over the hump against Xavier. Just as the snow-from-out-of-nowhere the night before the game forebode an ugly loss, the sunny weather that took hold by the time the final buzzer sounded symbolized UD’s triumph.

It may not lead to much, but in a way this win vindicates an otherwise disappointing season for UD. Sure, they still only went 1-2 against Xavier this year. But they won the most important of those games. They shut down a red-hot Xavier squad, and if nothing else, put a dent into the Muskies’ NCAA Tournament seeding and sent Holloway, Dante Jackson and Kenny Frease home without an A-10 Tournament Championship in their senior years.

Let that soak in for a bit. It feels great.

A Painful Reminder

February 16th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

On Monday night Kansas State University’s men’s basketball team took down No. 1 ranked Kansas University’s team in Manhattan, Kan. just a day after KU had been named the No. 1 team in the nation. While I’m not by any stretch of the imagination a K-State fan, and their win only serves to further the murkiness of this year’s NCAA Tournament bubble pictures, it was still cool to watch the Wildcats come together and play a phenomenal game, and take down their archrivals.

While an enjoyable game to watch, it hit home in a way that hurt for me, being a UD basketball fan. It served as a reminder of what the Flyers have needed to do the past two seasons, but have been unable to do: get a big win in the conference.

Kansas State’s and UD’s seasons are eerily similar this season. K-State started the season ranked in the top five in both polls, but have really disappointed this season, dropping out of the top 25 and coasting to a 16-9 (4-6 Big 12) record going into Monday’s matchup with KU. UD has also been disappointing this season. They weren’t ranked especially high this year, but they have still had several unexpected losses, and are sitting well below their preseason-projected position in the Atlantic 10.

The difference came last night. K-State is fighting for its NCAA Tournament life. They still have a ton of work to do to get into the tournament, but if they were going to have any shot at the tournament, it had to begin with a win over Kansas. The Wildcats needed a big win, and they needed to improve their record in general. Dropping to 4-7 in the conference would have all but sewed things up. The Wildcats understood that. So they went out and left it all on the floor. No one did so more than senior guard Jacob Pullen. Pullen was picked as a preseason First-Team All-American. He has had a rough season, and might not even make it on First-Team All-Big 12 by season’s end. But Pullen played to his All-American level Monday, dropping in a career high 36 points.

How many times, this season and last, have the Flyers had a similar opportunity to get a season-changing win? Last year, the games at Duquesne, Richmond, Xavier and Temple come to mind. The game against Xavier in the A-10 Tournament also seems to fit the bill. Care to take a guess at UD’s record in those games? 0-5.

Look at this year, too, and you’ll see something very similar. UD played at Xavier when they were 2-1 in the conference, and lost 81-76. They played a great game, but came up short. Then, at 3-2 in the A-10, UD lost consecutive games versus Richmond at home and Duquesne on the road, two teams that are in front of them in the A-10 standings. Most recently, UD got back to 5-4 in the conference, and then lost two in a row at Rhode Island and versus Temple, two more teams that the Flyers are looking up at in the A-10.

So why can’t the Flyers get that huge win like K-State did? Sometimes all it takes is one, but UD can’t seem to get over the hump. Certainly in the case of the Wildcats, their head coach Frank Martin is a much more intimidating figure than UD’s Brian Gregory. Maybe  Martin’s imposing figure and almost-certain mafia ties were the real motivating factors in K-State’s win. But as frightening as he is, I doubt it. In the end, it’s about the players, and them deciding that no matter what, they are going to come out guns-a-blazing from start to finish.

UD did a pretty good job of that against Xavier, and came up short. That game, I can’t criticize them too much. But the other four losses were by nine, 18, 14 and 12 points. They were games the Flyers were never really in, especially in the second half.

How did this culture find it’s way into the locker room at UD? We see other teams come up with the big wins every single season, but it seems like the Flyers are always coming up short. Until that changes, don’t expect things to change for BG’s program.

Boo on You, TCU

February 13th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

Browsing the internet the other day, I came across a very disappointing story on ESPN.com. It was about Texas Christian University turning down an opportunity to play Wisconsin in football in the upcoming 2011 season.

As you college football fans are probably aware of, TCU recently completed an undefeated season, and they beat Wisconsin, 21-19 in the Rose Bowl in order to complete that season, furthering the cause of the non-BCS teams who go undefeated and yet are snubbed of an opportunity to play for the national championship.

It was a triumphant day for the little man, as many pundits on CBS, ABC and ESPN had been talking about Wisconsin as possibly playing the best football in the nation by the end of the season. They were a classic Wisconsin team: big and strong, boasting a power running game that controlled the flow of any football game. But it didn’t quite happen against TCU. The Horned Frogs turned them away, scoring very quickly in the first quarter, and holding the Badgers off late in one of the better games of the bowl season.

Despite an undefeated season, TCU was not given any piece of the national championship. This past season that may have been a fair result because Auburn finished undefeated as well. That is neither here nor there. What does both me is what TCU has done since.

First, the university accepted a bid to join the Big East conference in 2012, making them a BCS school. While this is great for the Horned Frogs, it was the wrong thing to do, because it only solves TCU’s problem, not the bigger picture. The Boise State’s and Utah’s of the world are still going to be overlooked when they have phenomenal seasons, because people assume the teams they are playing aren’t tough.

Now, this news about TCU turning down a rematch against Wisconsin. The reason TCU athletic director gave for turning down the game? Because Wisconsin only offered a one-game rematch in Wisconsin, not a home-and-home swap where both teams would get to host the next two years.

What’s the big deal? TCU has made a living out of finding one or two big games out of conference to improve their resume. And just about every time, they have had to play on the road. It would be an awesome rematch, generate a ton of revenue, and definitely be nationally televised, probably as the game of the week. But since Wisconsin doesn’t want to go Fort Worth in 2012, TCU doesn’t want to play at all.

Now, Wisconsin is definitely cowardly for not being willing to do a home-and-home, but that is to be expected from the big schools. Of course they are chickens. Their kids have to be pampered, and they enjoy bending the rules as much as possible to their advantage. But that’s not the mid-major attitude.

Think about it in terms of basketball. The best mid-major programs like Butler, Gonzaga, Memphis and (sigh) Xavier (yeah, some of these teams are down this year, but they are the best year-in and out) will go anywhere and play anybody before the conference season starts. Memphis played versus Kansas on a neutral court, at Tennessee and versus Georgetown this season. They know it’s their job to get the quality wins, so they go and get them. Anybody willing to play, they say yes.

TCU has gone the other way, embarrassingly so. They are wimping out. They have already adopted that BCS-program attitude, and they will pay for it. Next year, maybe they will be undefeated again through 10 or so games. When the national championship discussion is in full swing though, they will once again not be involved, because their strength of schedule will not be good enough. TCU’s AD was trying to tout their game against Baylor next season? Does he honestly think that will look like a good win when the Bears are 5-5 at best next year? Good luck with that. A win at Wisconsin, however, would be a different story. And even if they lost, at least there would be some pride involved.

How Sweet it is to be Wrong Sometimes

February 10th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

I’m writing this still dizzy and reeling from an awesome Super Bowl XLV game, especially for fans of the Green Bay Packers, which I am.

It was a game in which the Pack took a big early lead, but anyone who has watched the Steelers at all this year knew they were going to make things close again. And they did, twice. But each time, Green Bay was able to respond, with big plays in the passing game. Some clown that writes for the Flyer News thought there was no way the Steelers would lose a close game. Well, a close game was what we got, and Pittsburgh couldn’t pull it out.

Surely by the time you’ve read this, you’ll have read countless other columns and stories about how Aaron Rodgers has the Brett Favre monkey completely off his back, or how the turnovers made the difference, or how the Super Bowl game was like a microcosm of the Packers’ season, where they overcame injuries and had players step in and play well anyway.

So this isn’t going to worry about that. Instead I’ll do my best to share the feelings that come along with your favorite team winning the big one. It is a day-saver. There is no cooler feeling in sports. When Ben Roethlisberger’s fourth down pass was broken up by Tramon Williams with less than a minute to play, I knew the Green and Yellow had it. Rodgers had beaten Roethlisberger, McCarthy had beaten Tomlin, Weezy had beaten Wiz Khalifa. I exhaled for what felt like the first time in about an hour. The Pack had done it for the first time since 1997.

Back then, it was cool, but I was pretty young. This time, it meant something much more. The group of guys I had lived and died every Sunday with for the past few season, endured all the nonsense with Favre three years ago, and watched improve year after year finally strung it together in a magical six-game run. I felt vindicated, elated, pumped, exhausted and tingly all over. I can only imagine what the guys who actually played the game were feeling.

The majority of people at UD (or at least the majority of them I know) are from Ohio, Northern Kentucky or the Chicago area. What I’m trying to say with that is, they are a championship-deprived bunch. The Bengals, Browns and Bears have not won since the Bears did in 1985. In other sports, it’s been awhile as well, with the Chicago Bulls being the most recent title run, when college students were pretty young.

I’m not here to rub it in your face though. I’m rooting that all of you get to experience the feeling I had as that pass hit the turf Sunday night. For how much caring we pour into those teams and players as fans, it’s something everyone deserves to experience at least once. It’s a reminder of why we really care about this sports nonsense so much. And, lemme tell you, it feels good. So good luck to all the Bengals and Browns fans, and yeah, even you Bears-backers, too.

As long as it doesn’t mean they’re taking the Pack down, that is.

The Bad and the Ugly

January 13th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

At the UD-St. Joe’s men’s basketball game yesterday night, UD took a 12 point lead in the first half, only to squander it and eventually enter the half down 35-31. As St. Joe’s was working its way back into the game and UD was crumbling, the girl sitting behind me said to her friends, “Why is this game so close right now?” and then a possession or two later, “How is it tied right now?” Though not willing to say it aloud because my head was buried in my hands, I couldn’t help but share her frustration. What is going on?

After an inspired double-overtime win over New Mexico, UD finished up nonconference play flying high at 12-3, primed to really do some damage this year. Then they had a rocky win at St. Louis, where they lost leads and let a team without its best two players stick around. Still, it was a road win. Flyer fans shrugged it off.

A few days later we realized we should not have done that. After a 28.6 percent shooting performance and an embarrassing, hard-to-watch 55-50 loss at UMass, we figured out that the St. Louis game was the beginning of an ugly trend. Wednesday’s 65-59 home win over St. Joe’s was just a continuation.

In my last column, I said UD’s success would depend on whether or not they can win those games they are supposed to. With a 25-point loss against Seton Hall (who UD beat away from home), and 29-point losses to Central Connecticut State and Xavier, UMass was one of those teams UD was supposed to beat. And while they did rebound against St. Joe’s, it wasn’t pretty.

Shooting poorly is one thing. Sometimes, that will happen and a team will struggle. But in their recent games, the Flyers have looked uninterested. The effort fans are used to hasn’t been there. Just look at the rebounding stats. Against St. Joe’s UD was outrebounded 37-30. Against UMass it was worse, 41-31. There is no bigger key to Dayton’s game than the defensive rebounding. Brian Gregory tells that to me every time I speak to him. If they don’t grab a rebound, they can’t get out and run, and then they struggle offensively.

So after three games that would have to be considered three of UD’s easiest in the A-10 this season, the Flyers hit a little bit of a tougher patch. They play at Xavier, versus Richmond and at Duquesne before the month is over.

The other thing I kept hearing from the people around me at last night’s game was “If they play like this at Xavier, their going to get smacked/stomped/destroyed/(fill in word for beaten badly).” Of course that is the case. They won’t play that poorly though. UD always manages to get up for games against Xavier, even if they don’t always win them. They play as hard as they do all season. So the question is whether or not the Flyers will be able to put a complete game together against Xavier. Last year, they did, but still didn’t quite come out on top. I was there, it was brutal.

Even if the Flyers take a setback at X though, I want to know how they’ll respond. Will it be the way they’ve responded after bad losses to UC and UMass, when they laid an egg in the following game (lost to ETSU and barely beat St. Joe’s, respectively)? Or will they respond like they did after a tough loss at Old Dominion, reeling off six straight wins? My inner fanboy wants to believe the latter will be the case. But my inner pessimist (and realist) isn’t feeling so confident.

SLU kicks off conference slate

January 6th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

The non-conference season is over. The Flyers are 12-3. As all the bad new Bud Light commercials are saying, “Here we go.”

No, I’m not talking about buying stuff from the 70′s at a yard sale or shmamblicating with an alien race. I’m talking about UD playing at St. Louis tonight, to kick off the important part of their season, the Atlantic 10 schedule.

The Flyers will have a great test in their very first A-10 matchup. While St. Louis is way down this year (just 5-8 so far, and without their two best players from last season), they were an inferior team to UD last year as well, but managed to go 2-0 against the Flyers, including spoiling senior night. No matter the circumstances, the Billikens seem to give the Flyers trouble, so I would not expect that to change tonight. SLU is led by Rick Majerus, one of the better coaches in Division 1 basketball. The guy gets his team to play hard, especially on the defensive end. He also seems to come up with a scheme that shuts UD down. Since Majerus joined Saint Louis in 2007, UD has played SLU six times. They have only mustered up 66, 65 (in overtime), 49, 47, 63 and 68 (in overtime) points in those games.

From there on out, things will not get easier. Dayton will have one of its toughest tests very early on, when they visit Xavier Jan. 15. The Flyers are fortunate later on though, with other top teams Richmond and Temple coming to UD Arena. If they are able to pick up wins in one or both of those games, it will be against a very good opponent, and another major player for the A-10 regular season title.

All in all, though, this conference season will come down to what it has in years past: can Dayton win on the road? Last year, the Flyers finished 8-8 in the conference with six losses on the road. Of those six, only one (a 49-41 setback at Temple) was by more than five points. Will this year’s UD team be the same? Will they play poorly and lose 60-59 when they are visiting a bad team, like they did to St. Joe’s last year? Or will they step up and win a couple of those close games? The answer will determine their NCAA vs. NIT status.

Flying High?

January 4th, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

During UD’s double-overtime win over New Mexico on New Year’s day, as they yet again got back into a game in the second half after really looking poor in the first, I came to the realization that this team is really playing well lately. They aren’t perfect, but they are playing more or less how I had hoped they would be playing all season long. Unfortunately, it took them several games to get here. The nonconference schedule, Dayton’s opportunity to impress the NCAA tournament selection committee, is over. Did UD do enough?

According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, no. In the preseason, Lunardi came out with his projected bracket on Nov. 10, and he had UD as one of the final teams in the tournament at an 11 seed. In his most recent bracketology, the Flyers are not in the tournament, and are not even one of the closest eight teams. So clearly, they’ve dropped off a bit in Joe’s eyes. I was surprised to see that, because I can’t imagine Lunardi was expecting UD to be much better than 12-3. Dayton’s resume really is not too shabby. They have wins over quality opponents in George Mason and New Mexico, and road wins over two BCS schools. The Flyers beat Mississippi (11-3) and Seton Hall (7-7) away from UD arena. The embarrassing losses to Cincinnati and East Tennessee State notwithstanding, this nonconference resume is better than Dayton has managed the past two years.

Over the first half of the season, some players have stood out more than others. Here are my midseason awards

MVP: Chris Wright. A pretty easy call if you ask me. CW is leading UD in scoring and rebounding this season, and is not far from averaging a double-double on the year right now. Not to mention that he single-handedly won UD two games this season, against Miami and Western Carolina. Wright has been the Flyers’ emotional and defensive leader this season. While the rest of the team has looked inconsistent on the defensive end, CW has brought the intensity every single game. No doubt he’s been the best for UD so far.

Most Improved: Juwan Staten. Paul Williams is the most improved player from last year’s team. But the Flyers’ freshman guard is the most improved player this season. From more quantifiable aspects of his game (such as his free throw shooting and scoring, which have gone up dramatically the past several games). To his change in his approach to running point (he now wants the ball in his hands, wants to shoot and score, wants to run the offense), Staten is the biggest reason the Flyers now look like contenders compared to the beginning of the year. If he continues to progress so quickly, watch out. He could be the player in the category above by season’s end.

Sharpshooter: Chris Johnson and Paul Williams. The juniors have been great from the field this year. Despite a slow start, CJ is up to 36 percent from beyond the arc. PW has been phenomenal all year long from deep, shooting an obscene 52 percent from three point land so far. The pair has also been fantastic from the foul line, missing a combined 9 free throws in 15 games (CJ is 41-46, and PW is 19-23).

Dayton is not in bad position, and are playing their best ball of the season, which is what you want to see. But as always, the team’s success will be measured by how they do in the Atlantic 10. Another team that struggles to win on the road against weaker opponents (such as the ones they begin conference play against) will finish 9-7 or 8-8 again, and will fade into the college basketball team as just another mid-major.

Time for Week 17

January 2nd, 2011 by Nate Waggenspack

It’s been a week of break, and Christmas is over, so everybody is ready to come back to school. Unfortunately there are still three devastating weeks to go. Luckily, the NFL has us covered for now.

College football is just wasting time time until its time for the BCS Bowl Games with gems like the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (yeah, that was a real name this year–San Diego State beat Navy 35-14). In the NFL, though, things are still very exciting. Other than our Monday and Tuesday games, week 16 is in the books. Here’s why you should be excited for week 17.

Week 17 is coming up, and teams are still fighting for the playoffs. It’s exactly what you would want. In the AFC, the picture is pretty clear. The Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs, Ravens and Jets are all in. As long as the Indianapolis Colts win, they’re in. Otherwise, the Jacksonville Jaguars would have a chance to sneak in at 9-7 with a win.

In the NFC, the finale to the season is going to be great. Only the Falcons, Eagles and Bears have sealed up playoff spots. The other three are still up for grabs, would should make for a wild weekend. Starting with tonight’s Monday Night game, all the games are important. The New Orleans Saints are taking on the Atlanta Falcons in a huge NFC South game. If the Saints can pull off a win, they’ll lock up a playoff spot. If they lose though, it sets up another big NFC South matchup when they play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17. The young Bucs squad, beat the defending champs earlier this season, and if they win again and get some help, they will be in the playoffs.

Elsewhere, the Green Bay Packers will host the Chicago Bears for a shot at the 6-seed. If the Packers win, they are in. Green Bay has battled injuries all year, but has a potent passing attack led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Bears may rest players because they have locked up their division title, and may have won themselves a first-round bye if the Eagles lose.

Even in the dreadful NFC South, where some of the worst football of the year has been played, the race is still coming down to one matchup in the final week. The two teams with a chance at the division championship will be playing each other as the St. Louis Rams, last year’s worst team with just one win, will take on the Seattle Seahawks. The winner be the 4-seed in the NFC, with the worst record in the playoffs. It would be quite a story if rookie Sam Bradford and the Rams are able to win the game and finish 8-8, but the Seahawks could play spoiler and take St. Louis down. They would then make the playoffs with a losing record, 7-9.

Finally, the New York Giants are still in the hunt, despite a monumental collapse to the Eagles and a drubbing at the hands of the Packers in consecutive weeks. If Eli Manning and company can recover with a win and get some help from other teams, they will sneak back into the playoffs. Be on the lookout for curmudgeonly coach Tom Coughlin, whose job in New York is in danger. Even if the Giants don’t win, the scowling, screaming Coughlin and his tantrums will be more than enough entertainment.

Week 17 is almost here, and this year, it matters.

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